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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota has surged: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+392%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Minnesota: up 392% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.71–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.71–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 10% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 0.71–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.662.9
20261.80.672.9
20271.80.682.9
20281.80.702.9
20291.80.712.9

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm2020242019
Crane Lake1420241969
Bemidji1219801967
Hart Lake920241971
Bigfork820241993
Lockport720241967
Babbitt620221994
Glendale620241993
Floodwood520241970
Cass Lake520161980
Sherry Lake420221970
Red Lake420241994
Cromwell320231971
Pine River320241970
Cohasset320161973
Bena319771967
Brook Park320191998
Sawbill Camp320241993
Chatfield 2320242005
Nebish320231985
Caledonia 2320242014
Nett Lake320212013
Millville220131972
Knapp220241990
St Stephen220081979

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.