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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota has surged: up 491% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+491%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Minnesota: up 491% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.77–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-21%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.77–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota is projected to fall about 21% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.9 (95% range 0.77–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.80.712.9
20271.80.733.0
20281.90.743.0
20291.90.763.0
20301.90.773.0

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chisholm2020242019
Cromwell1420251971
Backus1320251979
Bemidji1219801967
Lockport1120251967
Hovland1020251973
Crane Lake1020251969
Debs920251969
Glendale920251993
Millville620251972
Hart Lake620251971
Cass Lake520161980
Nebish520251985
Sherry Lake420221970
Beltrami420251974
Babbitt420251994
Pine River320241970
Cohasset320161973
Bena319771967
Sawbill Camp320251993
Red Lake320251994
Caledonia 2320252014
Nett Lake320212013
St Stephen220251979
Appleton220232006

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichigannew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.