BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York has surged: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+250%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in New York: up 250% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+56%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±42%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York is projected to rise about 56% by 2030 — from 3.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.0–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±42%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.42.86.1
20274.52.96.1
20284.52.96.2
20294.63.06.2
20304.73.06.3

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet3020171979
Swain1620071970
Parishville1620251977
N Wilmurt1519981967
Wanakena1420251980
W Shokan1320191971
Sabattis1319831966
Downsville1320191983
Blue Ridge S1020101969
Dexter Lake1019751969
Milford1020231978
Phillips Cr920251971
Degrasse920251981
S Berne 2920252014
Horseshoe L.920171993
North Easton820251967
Hopkinton820212006
Dryden720251968
Old Forge720061971
Mcdonough620171967
Corbettsvile620251969
Cattaraugus620191978
Number Four620161967
Salem620251973
Austerlitz520251976

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.