BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York has surged: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+269%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
107Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in New York: up 269% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.1–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+32%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.1–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±39.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York is projected to rise about 32% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.7 (95% range 3.1–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±39.4%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.52.96.1
20264.52.96.1
20274.63.06.2
20284.73.16.3
20294.73.16.3

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Inlet3020171979
S Berne 22120242014
Meridale1920241988
Swain1620071970
N Wilmurt1519981967
North Easton1520241967
W Shokan1320191971
Sabattis1319831966
Downsville1320191983
Wanakena1220241980
Gabriels1220211975
Highmarket1120241967
Blue Ridge S1020101969
Dexter Lake1019751969
Milford1020231978
Swain 21020242011
Parishville920241977
Horseshoe L.920171993
Corbettsvile820241969
North River820071966
Hopkinton820212006
Old Forge720061971
Mcdonough620171967
Phillips Cr620241971
Mt Morris620241988

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.