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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Pennsylvania has surged: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

44×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Pennsylvania: up 44× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 42% by 2029 — from 2.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 2.3–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.1%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.22.04.4
20263.32.14.4
20273.32.24.5
20283.42.24.6
20293.42.34.6

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Betula3820221987
Odin2520241976
Rasselas2320221981
Ellenton1620241983
Mawr Glen1520241966
Cherry Sprs1420211974
Starlight1419991971
Starlight 21320242000
Marsh Hill1320241983
Susquehanna1320241972
Poyntelle1320241969
Logue1220231981
Ansonia1120242002
Roulette 21120242022
Little Marsh1020241975
Eldred920221981
N Pine Grove820241999
Austinville820241993
Ltl Pine Cr820232000
Russell City620241968
Arnot620241989
Canadensis620242010
Whig Hill520241992
Greentown520241973
Sugar Grove520241995

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiorhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.