BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Vermont has surged: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+156%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Vermont: up 156% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 3.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.3–7.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±19.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Vermont is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 5.3 (95% range 3.3–7.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±19.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.13.17.1
20265.13.17.1
20275.23.27.2
20285.33.37.3
20295.33.37.3

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
S Reading1820241966
Marlboro1320241966
East Calais1220241966
Newbury 21020232005
W Rutland920241967
St Johnsbury920241970
Northfld Fls820211980
Middlesex720241968
Hardwick720241967
Waterville719801967
Post Mills620241966
Newbury620041988
Greensboro420241967
Stowe420241988
North Pownal320231971
Stratton320241966
Landgrove320241966
Shaftsbury320241968
Hinesburg319941969
East Haven220241966
Grand Isle219791979
Gaysville120181967
S Wallingfrd120221969
Fletcher120241994
Colchester120241991

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.