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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan has surged: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

12×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Michigan: up 12× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.8–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-30%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.8–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±33.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan is projected to fall about 30% by 2030 — from 6.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.8–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±33.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.02.55.4
20274.02.65.5
20284.12.65.6
20294.22.75.6
20304.32.85.7

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Maple Grove2420251967
Hiawatha Nf2220251992
Big Island Lake1820102008
Raco1720251972
Ned Lake1620251986
Isabella 21620252017
Ontonagon1520191967
Crystal Fls1520251979
Creighton1520251978
Gibbs City1420251979
Scottville1420251968
Sidnaw1420251993
Cluster Lakes1320102006
Imp Lake1120191992
Sand Lake1120251981
Ishpeming1020251981
Tahquamenon1020251976
Pickford1020251977
Shingleton920251967
Muskallonge920241966
Riggsville920191969
Brush Creek920161983
Scott'S Marsh920102006
Harrietta820251990
Brocky Lake820251980

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.