BirdAnalyst
Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan has surged: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+739%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
70Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Michigan: up 739% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+17%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–5.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan is projected to rise about 17% by 2029 — from 3.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.0 (95% range 2.7–5.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.72.45.1
20263.82.45.1
20273.92.55.2
20283.92.65.3
20294.02.75.3

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sidnaw3920241993
Big Island Lake1820102008
Ontonagon1520191967
Raco1420241972
Gibbs City1320241979
Brocky Lake1320241980
Cluster Lakes1320102006
Imp Lake1120191992
Ned Lake1020241986
Hiawatha Nf1020241992
Muskallonge920241966
Tahquamenon920241976
Riggsville920191969
Brush Creek920161983
Scott'S Marsh920102006
Creighton820231978
Ensign820102006
Crystal Fls720241979
Maple Grove720241967
Herron720162012
Frederic 2620172004
Red Oak620131976
Sand Lake620241981
Pine River620211992
Betchler Lks620232004

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.