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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Virginia has surged: up 362% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

+362%Since 1997TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Virginia: up 362% on the route-weighted index since 1997.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Virginia is projected to rise about 26% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+26%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.13Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.04–0.2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Virginia is projected to rise about 26% by 2028 — from 0.10 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.13 (95% range 0.04–0.21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19892028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.120.030.20
20250.120.030.21
20260.120.040.21
20270.130.040.21
20280.130.040.21

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Iron Mtn.520111997
Iron Mountain 3520232014
Rural Retrt119891989
Loft Mtn119941994
Iron Mountain 2120132012

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontwest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.