BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in North Dakota has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

13×Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
44YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in North Dakota: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.22–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+33%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.22–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in North Dakota is projected to rise about 33% by 2029 — from 0.41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.22–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.500.180.82
20260.510.190.83
20270.520.200.84
20280.530.210.85
20290.540.220.86

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Kempton1520172003
Cooperstown420241973
Turtle Mtns420241980
Nash320171983
Emerado220241975
Forman120212017
Walcott120232006
Edgeley120191992
Bowesmont119851985
Denbigh120242003
Abercrombie 2120142014

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker Population Trend in Other States

alaskaconnecticutillinoisiowamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiopennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-dakotatennesseeutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsin

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.