BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±43%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±43%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.71.12.3
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.22.3
20291.81.22.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA382022
OdinPENNSYLVANIA252024
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA232022
S Berne 2NEW-YORK212024
MeridaleNEW-YORK192024
High PointNEW-JERSEY162024
SwainNEW-YORK162007
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA162024
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA162024
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA152024
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA142021
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA141999
DownsvilleNEW-YORK132019
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA132024
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA132024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA132024
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA132024
LoguePENNSYLVANIA122023
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA112024
AnsoniaPENNSYLVANIA112024
MilfordNEW-YORK102023
Swain 2NEW-YORK102024
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA102024
EldredPENNSYLVANIA92022
JenningsMARYLAND82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.