BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains has surged: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

23×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
117Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Appalachian Mountains: up 23× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+22%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 22% by 2030 — from 1.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.2–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.71.12.3
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.12.3
20291.81.22.4
20301.81.22.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BetulaPENNSYLVANIA382022
OdinPENNSYLVANIA342025
RasselasPENNSYLVANIA232022
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA232025
Marsh HillPENNSYLVANIA192025
SwainNEW-YORK162007
N Pine GrovePENNSYLVANIA162025
GladyWEST-VIRGINIA162024
LoguePENNSYLVANIA142025
Cherry SprsPENNSYLVANIA142021
StarlightPENNSYLVANIA141999
EllentonPENNSYLVANIA142025
DownsvilleNEW-YORK132019
CanadensisPENNSYLVANIA132025
MilfordNEW-YORK102023
Little MarshPENNSYLVANIA102024
JenningsMARYLAND92025
Phillips CrNEW-YORK92025
S Berne 2NEW-YORK92025
EldredPENNSYLVANIA92022
Starlight 2PENNSYLVANIA92025
High PointNEW-JERSEY82025
LynchPENNSYLVANIA82025
Roulette 2PENNSYLVANIA82025
DrydenNEW-YORK72025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.