BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

17×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 17× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.5–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 14% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.5–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.01.32.7
20272.01.32.8
20282.11.42.8
20292.11.42.8
20302.21.52.9

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ParishvilleNEW-YORK162025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK151998
W ShokanNEW-YORK132019
North EastonNEW-YORK82025
HopkintonNEW-YORK82021
SalemNEW-YORK62025
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA62025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK52025
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52025
ShaftsburyVERMONT52025
RhinebeckNEW-YORK42025
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA42025
HarrisvillePENNSYLVANIA42025
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
MendonNEW-YORK32018
CastileNEW-YORK32025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK32025
North PownalVERMONT32025
HinesburgVERMONT31994
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK22019
WatertownNEW-YORK22012
West BangorNEW-YORK21999
WillsboroNEW-YORK22024
BalmatNEW-YORK22008

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.