BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has surged: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

16×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: up 16× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.4–2.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to rise about 34% by 2029 — from 1.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 1.4–2.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.01.32.7
20262.01.32.7
20272.11.32.8
20282.11.42.8
20292.11.42.8

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
N WilmurtNEW-YORK151998
North EastonNEW-YORK152024
W ShokanNEW-YORK132019
ParishvilleNEW-YORK92024
HopkintonNEW-YORK82021
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK62024
SalemNEW-YORK62024
Sugar GrovePENNSYLVANIA52024
AusterlitzNEW-YORK32024
GhentNEW-YORK32021
BranchportNEW-YORK32024
MendonNEW-YORK32018
SheridanNEW-YORK32024
Ferris CrnrsPENNSYLVANIA32024
North PownalVERMONT32023
ShaftsburyVERMONT32024
HinesburgVERMONT31994
RhinebeckNEW-YORK22024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK22024
TrumansburgNEW-YORK22024
Canadice LNEW-YORK22024
CastileNEW-YORK22024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK22019
WatertownNEW-YORK22012
West BangorNEW-YORK21999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.