BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Potholes has surged: up 570% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

+570%Since 1974TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
50YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Prairie Potholes: up 570% on the route-weighted index since 1974.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.15–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+66%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.33Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.15–0.5095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±30.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Potholes is projected to rise about 66% by 2029 — from 0.20 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.33 (95% range 0.15–0.50). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±30.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.310.140.48
20260.310.140.48
20270.320.150.49
20280.320.150.49
20290.330.150.50

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA152017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA42024
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA42024
NashNORTH-DAKOTA32017
AppletonMINNESOTA22023
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22011
LockhartMINNESOTA22010
Big StoneMINNESOTA22012
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA22024
TitonkaIOWA12011
CourtlandMINNESOTA12024
MaynardMINNESOTA12015
DawsonMINNESOTA12017
GlyndonMINNESOTA12022
TenneyMINNESOTA12014
OkleeMINNESOTA12021
BeltramiMINNESOTA12024
WylieMINNESOTA12024
ErieMINNESOTA12017
GryglaMINNESOTA12014
BadgerMINNESOTA12017
FairmontMINNESOTA12011
TracyMINNESOTA12023
Chokio NorthMINNESOTA12015
FormanNORTH-DAKOTA12021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.