BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 787% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+787%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
80Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 787% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.54–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-18%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.54–0.9095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 18% by 2030 — from 0.88 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.54–0.90). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.680.490.86
20270.690.500.87
20280.700.510.88
20290.710.520.89
20300.720.540.90

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ScottvilleMICHIGAN142025
N FreedomWISCONSIN112025
No BradleyMICHIGAN62025
MillvilleMINNESOTA62025
LoraineWISCONSIN42018
CochraneWISCONSIN42025
GilmantonWISCONSIN42025
KendallWISCONSIN42023
GreshamWISCONSIN42025
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA32025
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32025
ViroquaWISCONSIN32024
NashvilleMICHIGAN22017
OlaMICHIGAN22021
HungerfordMICHIGAN22025
St StephenMINNESOTA22025
EvergreenMINNESOTA22025
GlenwoodMINNESOTA22016
AshbyMINNESOTA22021
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA22015
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN22025
MerrillWISCONSIN22025
Oconto FallsWISCONSIN22023
Newburg CrnsWISCONSIN22025
N AndoverWISCONSIN22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.