BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition has surged: up 726% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+726%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
79Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Prairie Hardwood Transition: up 726% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.51–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+20%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.69Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.51–0.8795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 20% by 2029 — from 0.58 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.69 (95% range 0.51–0.87). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.650.470.82
20260.660.480.83
20270.670.490.85
20280.680.500.86
20290.690.510.87

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GilmantonWISCONSIN52024
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN52022
LoraineWISCONSIN42018
CadottWISCONSIN42024
KendallWISCONSIN42023
N FreedomWISCONSIN42024
GreshamWISCONSIN42024
Brook ParkMINNESOTA32019
Chatfield 2MINNESOTA32024
Caledonia 2MINNESOTA32024
MerrillWISCONSIN32022
CochraneWISCONSIN32024
TrempealeauWISCONSIN32024
ViroquaWISCONSIN32024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN32023
NashvilleMICHIGAN22017
No BradleyMICHIGAN22024
OlaMICHIGAN22021
MillvilleMINNESOTA22013
KnappMINNESOTA22024
St StephenMINNESOTA22008
EvergreenMINNESOTA22024
GlenwoodMINNESOTA22016
AshbyMINNESOTA22021
Whitewater 2MINNESOTA22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.