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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 452% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+452%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 452% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.6–8.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±37.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 7.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 6.5 (95% range 4.6–8.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±37.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20266.24.38.1
20276.34.48.2
20286.44.58.3
20296.54.58.4
20306.54.68.4

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MellenWISCONSIN272025
Popple RiverWISCONSIN262025
Maple GroveMICHIGAN242025
CavourWISCONSIN242025
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN222025
ChisholmMINNESOTA202024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN182010
ConoverWISCONSIN182025
RacoMICHIGAN172025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN162025
Isabella 2MICHIGAN162025
OntonagonMICHIGAN152019
Crystal FlsMICHIGAN152025
CreightonMICHIGAN152025
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN142025
SidnawMICHIGAN142025
CromwellMINNESOTA142025
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN132010
BackusMINNESOTA132025
MontrealWISCONSIN132025
BemidjiMINNESOTA121980
Iron RiverWISCONSIN122025
Sand LakeMICHIGAN112025
Imp LakeMICHIGAN112019
LockportMINNESOTA112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.