BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition has surged: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+339%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
125Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has surged in Boreal Hardwood Transition: up 339% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.4–8.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 5.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 6.3 (95% range 4.4–8.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.04.17.8
20266.14.27.9
20276.14.38.0
20286.24.48.1
20296.34.48.2

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SidnawMICHIGAN392024
ChisholmMINNESOTA202024
Big Island LakeMICHIGAN182010
Popple RiverWISCONSIN182024
MellenWISCONSIN182024
OntonagonMICHIGAN152019
RacoMICHIGAN142024
Crane LakeMINNESOTA142024
Gibbs CityMICHIGAN132024
Brocky LakeMICHIGAN132024
Cluster LakesMICHIGAN132010
BemidjiMINNESOTA121980
Imp LakeMICHIGAN112019
Ned LakeMICHIGAN102024
Hiawatha NfMICHIGAN102024
MuskallongeMICHIGAN92024
TahquamenonMICHIGAN92024
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN92019
Brush CreekMICHIGAN92016
Scott'S MarshMICHIGAN92010
Hart LakeMINNESOTA92024
BayfieldWISCONSIN92024
CreightonMICHIGAN82023
EnsignMICHIGAN82010
BigforkMINNESOTA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.