BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestForest birds

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Atlantic Northern Forest has risen sharply: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+75%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
155Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Yellow-bellied Sapsucker has risen sharply in Atlantic Northern Forest: up 75% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.9–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
6.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.9–8.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±3.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 6.6 (95% range 4.9–8.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±3.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.34.68.1
20266.44.78.1
20276.54.78.2
20286.54.88.2
20296.64.98.3

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Yellow-bellied Sapsucker in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pillsbury PdMAINE351968
ChesterfieldMASSACHUSETTS342024
Priestly Br.MAINE332013
InletNEW-YORK302017
Baker Lake 2MAINE292013
Seboomook LkMAINE232014
WaiteMAINE211977
Cummington 2MASSACHUSETTS212024
WilmotNEW-HAMPSHIRE212024
NesowadnehunMAINE182021
S ReadingVERMONT182024
BrooksMAINE172019
CanterburyNEW-HAMPSHIRE172024
NorthfieldMAINE161981
CharlestonMAINE162019
Forest StaMAINE162000
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS152016
AndoverMAINE142021
MarlowNEW-HAMPSHIRE142024
HancockMAINE132024
Carrying PlMAINE132024
SabattisNEW-YORK131983
MarlboroVERMONT132024
WanakenaNEW-YORK122024
GabrielsNEW-YORK122021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.