BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole

IcteridaeForest birdsIcterus galbula

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1,972RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Baltimore Oriole

A flame-orange songbird of open woodlands and shade trees, the Baltimore Oriole weaves a hanging pouch nest and is drawn to orange halves and nectar feeders.

Size
6.5–8.5 in long, about 1.2 oz (17–22 cm, 34 g)
Habitat
Woodlands and forest edges, including wooded suburbs and parks.
Diet
Insects, fruit and nectar.
Range
Recorded on 1,972 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 40 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Icteridae · Forest birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Baltimore Oriole TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in surveyed states: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.34–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.91Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.34–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.91 (95% range 0.34–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.491.6
20261.00.461.6
20270.980.421.5
20280.940.381.5
20290.910.341.5

Where the Baltimore Oriole Is Detected

BBS routes recording Baltimore Oriole, sized by most recent count.

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend by State

Baltimore Oriole population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama-65%196822
Arkansas-68%196946
Californiainsufficient datan/a1
Colorado-74%19797
Connecticut-79%196820
Delaware-76%196814
Georgiainsufficient datan/a10
Illinois-5%1968105
Indiana+166%196868
Iowa-25%196939
Kansas-27%196967
Kentucky+101%196857
Louisiana-66%196947
Maine-46%196855
Maryland+0%196873
Massachusetts-60%196832
Michigan+20%196899
Minnesota-35%196987
Mississippi-80%196838
Missouri-40%196983
Montana+2%198024
Nebraska+57%196965
New Hampshire-67%196824
New Jersey-15%196841
New York-52%1968128
North Carolina-2%197524
North Dakota+5%196949
Ohio-4%196888
Oklahoma-86%196963
Pennsylvania-43%1968134
Rhode Island+11%19686
South Carolinainsufficient datan/a2
South Dakota+25%196937
Tennessee-58%196835
Texas-83%196944
Vermont-82%196826
Virginia-31%196854
West Virginia-38%196860
Wisconsin-23%196897
Wyominginsufficient datan/a1

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Baltimore Oriole population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Prairie Potholes+12%1969111
Boreal Hardwood Transition-62%1968112
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain-55%196886
Atlantic Northern Forest-76%1968130
Badlands and Prairies-29%196945
Shortgrass Prairie-84%196926
Central Mixed Grass Prairie-28%1969104
Oaks and Prairies-75%196936
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie-6%1968273
Prairie Hardwood Transition-2%1968161
Central Hardwoods+159%1968139
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas-91%196966
Mississippi Alluvial Valley-65%196859
Southeastern Coastal Plain-92%196859
Appalachian Mountains-44%1968320
Piedmont-56%196883
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast-55%1968149
Gulf Coastal Prairie-39%19705

Baltimore Oriole Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it down about 58% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.