BirdAnalyst
Species · Iowa · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Iowa

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Iowa has edged down: down 25% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-25%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
39Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in IowaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Iowa. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Iowa

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.7–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.7–6.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Iowa is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 3.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.5 (95% range 2.7–6.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.62.76.4
20264.62.76.4
20274.52.76.4
20284.52.76.4
20294.52.76.4

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Iowa

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Iowa.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Washta2020141967
College Spgs 21720232005
Mt Hamill1320241967
College Spgs1320041967
Panther1120241967
Alice1019991967
Zearing1019951967
Hudson920221967
Washington820241967
Bedford720181969
Red Rock720241968
Clare720191973
Exline620241974
Brooklyn520221967
Maquoketa520241967
Scranton520241967
Mccallsburg520241996
Cedar Valley419971967
Wales320181967
Lafayette320242003
Melrose220241974
Bryant220241967
West Liberty220241968
Desmoines219791968
Kanawha220241967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.