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Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in North Carolina has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

-2%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in North Carolina. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.08Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.08 (95% range 0.00–0.20). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.1%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.000.20
20260.080.000.20
20270.080.000.20
20280.080.000.20
20290.080.000.20

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Craven Gap519741974
Climax219861985
Mooresville219801980
Call219961977
Linville219811981
Jarvisburg 2220012001
Durham220182018
Wards Corner119981998
Waterville119961996
Fontana119771977
Copeland120011971
Sturgills120242001
Siloam120112011
French Broad River120082007
Ostwalt120162016
Sheffield120242024
Hendersonvil119991998
Fairview120152015
Todd120231998
Rowland119981994
Mount Airy120052000
Waco120031996
Oteen119991976
Eden120212021

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.