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Species · Texas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Texas

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Texas has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
44Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in TexasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Texas: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Texas

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±52.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Texas is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.04). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±52.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.010.000.05
20260.010.000.05
20270.010.000.05
20280.000.000.04
20290.000.000.04

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Texas

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Texas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Booker919881979
Athens319681968
Wolfe City319731973
Kosse220172003
Liberty Hill220101970
Clarendon219721968
Miami220061983
Decatur219981998
Agua Nueva119771977
Kingsville119791979
Indianola119851980
George West119901990
Blue Ridge120102005
Lockhart119841978
Lone Oak120021999
Town Bluff119871974
Livingston119741974
New Waverly120142009
Oak Grove119721972
Diboll119891977
Caledonia119771977
Oakwood119671967
Osage120162016
Adamsville119751975
Winchell119711971

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseevermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.