BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in South Dakota has risen sharply: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+74%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has risen sharply in South Dakota: up 74% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in South Dakota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.30–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-38%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.81Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.30–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in South Dakota is projected to fall about 38% by 2030 — from 1.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.81 (95% range 0.30–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.5%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.800.291.3
20270.810.301.3
20280.810.301.3
20290.810.301.3
20300.810.301.3

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Howard1220251972
Lennox1120251968
Chamberlain920111969
Tripp520251985
Volga420251967
Wilmot320251967
Veblen320231967
Volunteer219711971
Lodgepole219971996
Ardmore220192012
White River220132012
White Lake120111967
Geddes120251968
Winner120251969
Rosebud120111971
Rockyford119871987
Raymond120171967
Roswell120141970
Broadland120141967
Lane119991967
Crow Creek120222000
Ft Thompson120111970
Britton120221970
Forbes120031968
French Creek119951995

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.