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Species · Michigan · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Michigan

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Michigan has edged up: up 20% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+20%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Michigan is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+23%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Michigan is projected to rise about 23% by 2029 — from 3.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.46.4
20263.91.46.4
20273.81.46.3
20283.81.36.3
20293.81.36.3

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Homer1920211975
Frederic1520011971
Traverse Cty1419921975
Galesburg1420241966
Holt1420081969
Irons1319891970
Barry S.G.A. 21320192013
Monterey1220231978
Hartland1220111992
Remus1120241974
Drayton Plns1119871973
Howardsville1020241969
Prattville920211967
Hungerford920241991
Chippewa Lk.920241992
Almena920151993
Allegan Wma820191993
Rochester720241993
Bear Lake620241967
Richmond620241999
Barry S.G.A.620121995
Cunard520211974
Pleasant Val519971967
Riggsville520191967
No Bradley520241970

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.