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Species · Michigan · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Michigan

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Michigan has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+24%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
99Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MichiganNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Michigan. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Michigan

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-6%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.3–6.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Michigan is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.8 (95% range 1.3–6.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.91.46.4
20273.91.46.3
20283.81.46.3
20293.81.36.3
20303.81.36.2

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Michigan

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Michigan.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Homer1920211975
Frederic1520011971
Cohoctah1520252021
Traverse Cty1419921975
Mottville1420251967
Irons1319891970
Barry S.G.A. 21320192013
Remus1220251974
Hartland1220111992
Chippewa Lk.1220251992
Coopersville1120251979
Galesburg1120251966
Drayton Plns1119871973
Hungerford1120251991
Howardsville920251969
Prattville920211967
Almena920151993
Lawrence820251969
Ola820251974
Allegan Wma820191993
Mayfield720252000
Scottville620251968
No Bradley620251970
Richmond620241999
Barry S.G.A.620121995

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.