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Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey has edged down: down 15% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-15%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
41Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.80.005.8
20262.70.005.8
20272.60.005.7
20282.60.005.6
20292.50.005.5

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bloomsbury1120241969
High Point1020241977
Ramseysburg720241995
Dover520231977
Pedricktown 2520242013
Clarksville419911969
Pottersville420241977
Bennett Mill319761966
Holmansville320091969
Croton320071970
Greenwich220181966
Deepwater219771971
Ancora219771966
Masonville219701966
Sandbrook220231970
New Bedford220241969
Midvale220211967
Keyport220181986
Villas219791979
Spraguetown219911978
Pedricktown220121991
Winslow220231989
Woodbury Hgt120221968
Six Points120191979
Toms River120241966

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.