BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-8%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–5.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 3.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.00–5.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.005.8
20272.70.005.7
20282.60.005.6
20292.50.005.6
20302.40.005.5

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Ramseysburg1920251995
Bloomsbury1720251969
High Point1220251977
Dover520231977
Clarksville419911969
Pottersville420241977
Bennett Mill319761966
Holmansville320091969
Croton320071970
Pedricktown 2320252013
Greenwich220181966
Deepwater219771971
Ancora219771966
Masonville219701966
New Bedford220241969
Midvale220211967
Keyport220181986
Villas219791979
Spraguetown219911978
Estell Manor220252025
Pedricktown220121991
Winslow220231989
Croton 2220252008
Woodbury Hgt120221968
Six Points120191979

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.