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Species · Arkansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Arkansas has fallen sharply: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-68%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
46Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Arkansas: down 68% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Arkansas is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-88%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±78.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Arkansas is projected to fall about 88% by 2029 — from 0.75 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±78.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.200.001.3
20260.180.001.2
20270.150.001.2
20280.120.001.2
20290.090.001.1

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
South Bend720231967
Gillett620242010
Kelso520162010
England420242010
Whitton319911967
Augusta320011968
Lurton319971995
Crowley'S Ridge320242011
Augusta 2320162004
Eudora219951967
Ramsey219971967
Locust Bayou220231975
Hughes220231967
Harrisburg220191967
Coal Hill220231967
Centerton220242010
Marshall220132011
Old Milo120241969
Stamps120041969
Hope120241967
Ashdown119841969
West Tyler119821967
Crows119871969
Poyen119821976
Hollywood120211967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.