BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Delaware has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
54YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Delaware: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Delaware is projected to rise about 188% by 2028 — from 0.25 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+188%Change by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.72Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±269.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Delaware is projected to rise about 188% by 2028 — from 0.25 in 2023 to a central estimate of 0.72 (95% range 0.00–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±269.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.770.002.0
20250.760.002.0
20260.740.002.0
20270.730.001.9
20280.720.001.9

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Milton320141968
Bethany Bch219861967
Mt Pleasant120191966
Wilmington120141967
Harrington120231966
Frederica120131966
Dover119861967
Frankford120081967
Holleyville120041967
Lowes Xrds119861980
Blackbird120071995
Millsboro120192019
Pepperbox119991998
Pepperbox 2120222022

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutgeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.