BirdAnalyst
Species · Massachusetts · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Massachusetts

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Massachusetts has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MassachusettsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Massachusetts: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Massachusetts

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.50–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-26%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.6Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.50–6.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Massachusetts is projected to fall about 26% by 2030 — from 4.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.6 (95% range 0.50–6.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.21.17.4
20274.10.957.2
20283.90.807.1
20293.80.656.9
20303.60.506.8

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Massachusetts

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Massachusetts.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Gay Head1520251996
Wellfleet 21420252016
Princeton1219761969
E Dennis1120211967
Brockton1120191967
Belchertown1120251967
Cheshire1119941969
Wellfleet920071966
E Pepperell919941966
N Oxford820251968
S Barre720251968
Prattville620191966
Pittsfield620161967
Monterey420252019
Ware River420221993
Cape Cod Ns420071989
Maynard320251967
Warren320091968
N Orange320251969
Sheffield320221969
N. Andover320251995
Cummington 2320252015
Hancock320151998
Chilmark219831969
Newburyport220221967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.