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Species · Louisiana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Louisiana

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Louisiana has fallen sharply: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-66%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in LouisianaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Louisiana: down 66% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Louisiana

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Louisiana is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-99%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±107.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Louisiana is projected to fall about 99% by 2029 — from 0.85 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.69). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±107.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.75
20260.060.000.73
20270.040.000.72
20280.030.000.70
20290.010.000.69

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Louisiana

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Louisiana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shaw1720241967
River Road820241987
Mayflower720241967
Cypress419821967
Morgan City219771973
Creole219711970
Fort Jessup220222013
Fishville220021967
Fort Polk219751967
Clay220121968
Longstreet220111967
Floyd220191993
Marion219941994
Gonzales220112006
Frogmore220242007
Transylvania220181999
Baton Rouge220222007
Roseland119771970
Bickham120091984
Keystone119671967
Plettenberg120221968
Mamou119711967
Easton119881968
De Ridder120021970
Derry119891967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckymainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.