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Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Virginia has declined: down 31% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-31%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Virginia is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.03–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Virginia is projected to fall about 12% by 2029 — from 0.61 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.03–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.580.071.1
20260.570.061.1
20270.560.051.1
20280.550.041.1
20290.540.031.1

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Saltville1520241969
W Augusta620231967
Edinburg420211969
Blacksburg420241988
Star Tannery320241977
Churchville320231966
David320131979
Taylorstown 2320242013
Taylorstown220101967
Tryme220191975
Jerome220211972
Great Falls219781966
Hall220231982
Front Royal220091998
Stickleyvill219881975
Ivanhoe219681966
Wylliesburg220021983
Rural Retrt220241982
Hebron220031982
Carters Brdg 2220212015
Stanley120241966
Port Royal119941987
Partlow120001981
Isom119791970
Putnam120161969

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.