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Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Virginia

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Virginia has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-29%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
54Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Virginia. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.54Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.03–1.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Virginia is projected to fall about 14% by 2030 — from 0.63 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.54 (95% range 0.03–1.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.570.071.1
20270.570.061.1
20280.560.051.1
20290.550.041.1
20300.540.031.0

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
David320131979
Covington320251966
Fincastle320251967
Natural Brid320251974
Saltville320251969
Taylorstown220101967
W Augusta220251967
Tryme220191975
Great Falls219781966
Big Island220251968
Shipman220251970
Front Royal220091998
Stickleyvill219881975
Ivanhoe219681966
Wylliesburg220021983
Hebron220031982
Blacksburg220251988
Carters Brdg 2220212015
Star Tannery120251977
Churchville120251966
Stanley120251966
Edinburg120251969
Jerome120251972
Port Royal119941987
Partlow120001981

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.