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Species · Connecticut · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Connecticut

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Connecticut has collapsed: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-79%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
20Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in ConnecticutNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Connecticut: down 79% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Connecticut

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Connecticut is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 5.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–4.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.760.005.6
20270.500.005.4
20280.230.005.1
20290.000.004.9
20300.000.004.9

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Connecticut

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Connecticut.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Willimantic2020181967
Woodstock 21720252016
New Hartford1319871972
E Hartland819921966
Woodstock820071968
Mid Haddam720251973
Danbury620171968
Warren620111972
Granby620251988
Greenwich420181967
Long Hill420191972
Southington420251973
Westbrook320241969
Sherman320191972
Warren 2320252012
Uncasville220251973
Mystic120221973
Buckingham120211966
No Woodbury120251967
New Hartford120221994

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradodelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.