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Species · Kentucky · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Kentucky has surged: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+100%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
57Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has surged in Kentucky: up 100% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kentucky is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±83.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kentucky is projected to rise about 39% by 2030 — from 1.6 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.0–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±83.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.10.973.3
20272.20.993.3
20282.21.03.4
20292.21.03.4
20302.21.03.4

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Plum1420251966
Hudson720251966
Bardwell620031967
Pleasurevill520251979
Merrimac320241967
Boxville319831971
Joy320221971
Shelbyville319781967
Goshen319991966
Glencoe320221968
Buena Vista320171967
Porter320251966
Sewell Shop320231970
Keysburg220191968
Cedar Grove220251967
Iron Bridge219861966
Mckee220242024
Kings Mtn220211967
Johnsonville220211971
Dixie220191981
Kehoe219921974
Bays Fork220182001
Campton220122012
Lebanon Junction220242001
Cumberlnd Gp120161994

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.