BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Pennsylvania has declined: down 43% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-43%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
134Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Pennsylvania. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+64%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.3–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±41.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 64% by 2029 — from 2.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.3–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±41.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.56.0
20264.22.56.0
20274.22.46.0
20284.22.45.9
20294.12.35.9

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Harmonsburg1820231966
Collegeville1620231971
Big Flat1519811966
Waller1220241971
Beaver1220231969
West Grove1219961966
Poyntelle1120241969
Sardis819741967
Margaret820241969
Geeseytown820241987
Ryde820051968
Peru Mills820241966
Peters Mt819941972
Drehersville 2820232000
Betula720221973
Mawr Glen720241966
Millville720241969
Honesdale720241972
Starlight719991970
Ltl Pine Cr720241990
Laurel Hill720241979
Wyalusing720231985
Roulette620211970
Logue620221970
Ravensburg619791966

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.