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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.85–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+4%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–3.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.3 (95% range 0.85–3.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.50.984.0
20272.40.953.9
20282.40.913.9
20292.40.883.9
20302.30.853.8

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osseo1420211967
Lockhart1220251993
Greenbush1220251995
Whitewater1220001994
St Stephen1120161967
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Franklin1020251993
Knapp820251967
Chatfield 2820252003
Redwood Fall720251978
Beltrami720251967
Huntley620251967
Maynard620151968
Evergreen620251967
Oklee620211969
Lake Bronson620111978
Fairmont620251993
Brook Park620211998
Chatfield519991967
Chandler520251969
Ashby520211997
Sherburne Nr520241990
Millville420251967
Edwards420241973
Worthington420252004

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.