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Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota has declined: down 35% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-35%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
87Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.89–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.89–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±25.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota is projected to rise about 14% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.4 (95% range 0.89–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±25.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.04.0
20262.50.984.0
20272.50.954.0
20282.40.923.9
20292.40.893.9

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Osseo1420211967
Whitewater1220001994
St Stephen1120161967
Wigwam Bay1020231967
Millville920191967
Tracy920242004
Caledonia 2720242013
Maynard620151968
Dawson620221979
Glyndon620241978
Oklee620211969
Lake Bronson620111978
Brook Park620211998
Greenbush620241995
Chatfield519991967
Ash Creek520241975
Courtland520241978
Evergreen520241967
Ashby520211997
Chatfield 2520242003
Sherburne Nr520241990
Huntley420241967
Princeton420241969
Edwards420241973
Beltrami420241967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.