BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in New York

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in New York has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in New York: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.27–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.27–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±11.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 3.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.27–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±11.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.50.716.3
20263.40.606.1
20273.30.496.0
20283.10.385.9
20293.00.275.8

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warwick1919741968
Oneida1920101968
Dryden1820241966
Cooperstown1719771968
Meridale1620241967
Nashville1520181967
Oxford1119761967
Branchport1120241967
S Berne 21120242014
N Victory1119721967
Canadice L1020241968
Milford1020231978
Cayuga920241969
Naples920241966
Huntington820231967
Westbrookvle820181966
Oneonta820241968
St Johnsburg820241967
Waddington819981981
N Wilmurt719981967
Warwick 2720131975
Somers619771970
Rhinebeck620221966
Cobleskill620231966
Duanesburg620241966

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.