BirdAnalyst
Species · New York · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in New York

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in New York has declined: down 50% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-50%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
128Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in New YorkNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in New York. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in New York

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.25–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-36%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.25–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New York is projected to fall about 36% by 2030 — from 4.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 0.25–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.50.696.2
20273.30.586.1
20283.20.476.0
20293.10.365.9
20303.00.255.8

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in New York

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New York.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Corbettsvile2120251966
Warwick1919741968
Oneida1920101968
Cooperstown1719771968
Meridale1720251967
Nashville1520181967
Naples1420251966
Dryden1320251966
Oxford1119761967
Branchport1120241967
S Berne 21120252014
N Victory1119721967
Canadice L1020251968
Milford1020231978
Austerlitz920251966
St Johnsburg920251967
Huntington820231967
Westbrookvle820181966
Oriskany Fls820251967
Pulaski820251967
Waddington819981981
Duanesburg720251966
N Wilmurt719981967
Harris Hill720252005
Warwick 2720131975

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.