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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-46%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+59%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.56Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.19–0.9295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee is projected to rise about 59% by 2030 — from 0.35 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.56 (95% range 0.19–0.92). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.540.180.91
20270.550.180.91
20280.550.180.91
20290.550.190.92
20300.560.190.92

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brownsville620061966
Pawpaw520121966
Sweetlips419941967
Tiptonville320251966
Campbellsville320171982
Peytonsville320251969
Indian Mound 2320052005
Indian Mound219981973
Belotes Bend220051967
Tullahoma220151968
Smokey Jct219991969
Jefferson Cty220031973
Moscow120091967
Tibbs120081966
Whiteville120221988
Big Sandy119971976
Mansfield120231969
Silerton120221966
Trenton119861968
Humboldt120241968
Pond Creek119751970
Collinwood119791979
Wrigley120121970
Cornpone119971997
White House120101967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.