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Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Tennessee: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee is projected to rise about 501% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.17–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+501%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–0.9395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±229.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee is projected to rise about 501% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.17–0.93). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±229.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.530.150.91
20260.540.160.92
20270.540.160.92
20280.540.170.92
20290.550.170.93

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Brownsville620061966
Pawpaw 2620222013
Pawpaw520121966
Sweetlips419941967
Campbellsville320171982
Indian Mound 2320052005
Tiptonville220231966
Indian Mound219981973
Belotes Bend220051967
Tullahoma220151968
Smokey Jct219991969
Jefferson Cty220031973
Moscow120091967
Tibbs120081966
Whiteville120221988
Big Sandy119971976
Mansfield120231969
Silerton120221966
Trenton119861968
Humboldt120241968
Pond Creek119751970
Collinwood119791979
Wrigley120121970
Cornpone119971997
White House120101967

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.