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Species · Mississippi · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Mississippi

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Mississippi has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-80%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
38Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MississippiNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Mississippi: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Mississippi

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.9495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±159.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Mississippi is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.42 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.94). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±159.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.94
20260.000.000.94
20270.000.000.94
20280.000.000.94
20290.000.000.94

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Mississippi

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Mississippi.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dundee820211970
Tchula519751970
Cybur519861986
Eagle Lake420242012
Duck Hill319981968
Tallahatchie320231996
Winterville320092009
Utica219791966
Olive Branch219761966
Cockrum219831966
Walthall219871987
Lake219721972
Corinth220221972
Dahomey Nwr220242017
Tippo220231996
Tchula 3219991995
Moon220211996
Lake Mary119891974
Beverly119821966
Commerce119931966
Benton120241999
Isola120091972
Lucien119981970
Fayette120041968
Forest120091972

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.