BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Vermont

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Vermont has collapsed: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-81%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
26Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Vermont: down 81% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Vermont is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.55Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Vermont is projected to fall about 48% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.55 (95% range 0.00–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.003.0
20270.830.002.9
20280.730.002.8
20290.650.002.7
20300.550.002.6

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal920251966
Waterville719801967
Shaftsbury620251966
Hinesburg519941966
S Wallingfrd320221966
Stowe320221988
Bristol320181995
Marlboro220251966
S Reading220231966
Gaysville220181966
Grand Isle220241967
Stratton120241967
Landgrove120241969
Post Mills120211966
W Rutland120251966
St Johnsbury120241970
East Haven120181966
Northfld Fls120181980
Middlesex120171968
East Calais120191970
Newbury120041986
Hardwick120241968
Greensboro120241971
Fletcher120251968
Colchester120241986

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.