BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Missouri has declined: down 40% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-40%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Missouri. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Missouri is projected to rise about 152% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+152%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–4.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±114%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Missouri is projected to rise about 152% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 3.0 (95% range 1.1–4.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±114%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.01.24.8
20263.01.24.8
20273.01.24.8
20283.01.24.8
20293.01.14.8

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Norborne1120232006
Hamilton1019851972
Mcfall920241994
Sni Mills819901967
Tarkio819891968
Stet719951972
Kahoka719981969
Gildehouse719891979
Cameron720231986
Auburn720212016
Laclede620241994
Kahoka2620242002
Watson620231991
Frazier520241967
Kearney520241994
Frankford520241987
Weston520212013
Moselle520112001
Peace Valley420221976
Rensselaer420241971
Crane420092006
Emden420242017
Ironton319801978
Graydon320171967
Reeds320221978

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.