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Species · Kansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Kansas

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Kansas has edged down: down 24% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-24%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kansas is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.5–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kansas is projected to rise about 12% by 2030 — from 8.8 in 2025 to a central estimate of 9.8 (95% range 6.5–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.3%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20269.96.613
20279.96.613
20289.96.613
20299.86.513
20309.86.513

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert6320251967
Kanopolis2320251967
Gray2220191967
St John2120191967
Hanover2120251969
Phillipsburg2120251967
Ash Valley2120192000
Chapman1819811967
Beloit 21820182005
Minneapolis1720191967
Hodges1720142000
Hollenberg1520251969
Jewell1520051968
Severance1320252000
Hays1220141968
Berwet1220252000
Hopewell1220182000
Damar1020162000
Humboldt920221969
Grantville920221967
Logan820251967
Le Loup820212000
Olsburg820252000
Beloit820032000
Solomon820251982

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.