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Species · Kansas · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Kansas

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Kansas has declined: down 27% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-27%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
67Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in KansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Kansas. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in Kansas

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kansas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 6.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+12%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
9.9Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
6.6–1395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Kansas is projected to rise about 12% by 2029 — from 8.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 9.9 (95% range 6.6–13). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.7%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025106.713
2026106.713
202710.06.713
202810.06.713
20299.96.613

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in Kansas

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Kansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Covert6720241967
Kanopolis5520241967
Gray2220191967
St John2120191967
Logan2120221967
Ash Valley2120192000
Solomon2020191982
Chapman1819811967
Beloit 21820182005
Minneapolis1720191967
Hodges1720142000
Phillipsburg1620221967
Jewell1520051968
Berwet1520242000
Hanover1420231969
Hollenberg1420231969
Hays1220141968
Hopewell1220182000
Ellinor1120241967
Damar1020162000
Humboldt920221969
Grantville920221967
Jewell 2920242006
Plymell820242000
Le Loup820212000

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.