BirdAnalyst
Species · New Hampshire · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in New Hampshire

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in New Hampshire has fallen sharply: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-67%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
24Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in New HampshireNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in New Hampshire: down 67% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in New Hampshire

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-10%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±27.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New Hampshire is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.3 (95% range 0.00–4.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±27.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.7
20261.60.004.6
20271.50.004.5
20281.40.004.4
20291.30.004.3

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in New Hampshire

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New Hampshire.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dover1020241966
East Kingston920241999
Mt Chocorua320241967
Walpole320241966
Fitzwilliam220241966
Epsom220231966
Canterbury220241966
Lempster220191967
Jefferson Hl220221966
Peterborough120241966
Brentwood119981966
Hopkinton120231966
Concord120241966
Strafford120241966
Gilmantn I W120181969
Wilmot120131966
Marlow120231966
Franconia120231966
Milan120211966
Stratford120151967
Dixvil Notch120001969
Clarksville119871967
Glen120221975
Jeffers Ntch120182000

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.