BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota has held roughly steady: up 5% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+5%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+6%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±60.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 1.6 (95% range 0.00–4.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±60.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.004.3
20261.70.004.3
20271.60.004.3
20281.60.004.2
20291.60.004.2

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Denbigh820241968
Turtle Mtns720241980
Kempton520171967
Cooperstown520241969
Nash520161980
Solen420242013
Emerado320241973
Buchanan320241967
Bowesmont320141968
Niles320241989
Bowesmont 2320162015
Sydney219831970
Wimbledon220231981
Lakota220061968
Dunn Center219951973
Gorham219791974
Parshall220081982
Douglas Crk220241982
Montpelier220221991
Forman120211969
Walcott120231967
Edgeley120221980
Lake George120221968
Danzig120021989
Horsehead Lk120241980

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.