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Species · North Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota has edged down: down 22% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-22%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
49Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Baltimore Oriole Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota is projected to rise about 41% by 2030 — from 1.0 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.00–4.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.004.2
20271.60.004.2
20281.50.004.2
20291.50.004.1
20301.50.004.1

Baltimore Oriole Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Turtle Mtns920251980
Emerado620251973
Kempton520171967
Nash520161980
Buchanan320241967
Bowesmont320141968
Niles320241989
Bowesmont 2320162015
Sydney219831970
Cooperstown220251969
Lakota220061968
Dunn Center219951973
Denbigh220251968
Gorham219791974
Parshall220081982
Montpelier220251991
Forman120211969
Walcott120231967
Edgeley120221980
Lake George120231968
Danzig120021989
Wimbledon120251981
Horsehead Lk120251980
Webster120211989
Rolla120211969

Baltimore Oriole Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomapennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.