BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+3%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–5.895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 3.5 (95% range 1.2–5.8). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20253.91.66.2
20263.81.56.1
20273.71.46.0
20283.61.35.9
20293.51.25.8

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OneidaNEW-YORK192010
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA182023
NashvilleNEW-YORK152018
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
N VictoryNEW-YORK111972
Canadice LNEW-YORK102024
CayugaNEW-YORK92024
NaplesNEW-YORK92024
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK82024
WaddingtonNEW-YORK81998
PittsfieldOHIO82024
N WilmurtNEW-YORK71998
RhinebeckNEW-YORK62022
DuanesburgNEW-YORK62024
MendonNEW-YORK62018
GarrettsvileOHIO61991
ShaftsburyVERMONT62024
CatskillsNEW-YORK52015
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK52024
OrleansNEW-YORK52024
Mt MorrisNEW-YORK52024
West SenecaNEW-YORK52004
CastileNEW-YORK52024
Cherry HillNEW-YORK52019
ByronNEW-YORK52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.