BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-52%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 52% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-17%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–5.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 17% by 2030 — from 4.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 3.4 (95% range 1.1–5.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20263.81.66.1
20273.71.46.0
20283.61.35.9
20293.51.25.8
20303.41.15.7

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OneidaNEW-YORK192010
NashvilleNEW-YORK152018
NaplesNEW-YORK142025
BranchportNEW-YORK112024
N VictoryNEW-YORK111972
Canadice LNEW-YORK102025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA102025
AusterlitzNEW-YORK92025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK92025
North PownalVERMONT92025
Oriskany FlsNEW-YORK82025
PulaskiNEW-YORK82025
WaddingtonNEW-YORK81998
PittsfieldOHIO82024
DuanesburgNEW-YORK72025
N WilmurtNEW-YORK71998
Harris HillNEW-YORK72025
LenoxOHIO72025
MendonNEW-YORK62018
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK62025
GarrettsvileOHIO61991
ShaftsburyVERMONT62025
CatskillsNEW-YORK52015
CayugaNEW-YORK52025
OrleansNEW-YORK52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.