BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Badlands and Prairies has declined: down 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Badlands and Prairies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.09 (95% range 0.00–0.26). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.100.000.26
20260.100.000.26
20270.100.000.26
20280.090.000.26
20290.090.000.26

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA92011
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA42024
WinnerSOUTH-DAKOTA42023
LocateMONTANA22014
CusterMONTANA22019
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA21995
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA21979
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA21971
LodgepoleSOUTH-DAKOTA21997
ArdmoreSOUTH-DAKOTA22019
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA22013
HighwoodMONTANA11998
RoyMONTANA11991
CircleMONTANA11989
SavageMONTANA12006
ForsythMONTANA12021
PowdervilleMONTANA12022
Dinosaurs H.M.MONTANA12024
LindsayMONTANA12019
Miles CityMONTANA12018
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA12001
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA12001
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA12015
TobaccoNORTH-DAKOTA12018
LarkNORTH-DAKOTA11982

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.