BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 47% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-47%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
321Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole In Appalachian Mountains Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 2.2 (95% range 1.1–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.41.33.6
20272.41.23.5
20282.31.23.5
20292.31.13.4
20302.21.13.4

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CorbettsvileNEW-YORK212025
RamseysburgNEW-JERSEY192025
WarwickNEW-YORK191974
WilliamsportMARYLAND182025
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY172025
CooperstownNEW-YORK171977
MeridaleNEW-YORK172025
WallerPENNSYLVANIA152025
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA151981
DrydenNEW-YORK132025
Mawr GlenPENNSYLVANIA132025
High PointNEW-JERSEY122025
OxfordNEW-YORK111976
S Berne 2NEW-YORK112025
GeeseytownPENNSYLVANIA112025
MilfordNEW-YORK102023
HonesdalePENNSYLVANIA102025
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA92025
MifflintownPENNSYLVANIA92025
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK82018
RushPENNSYLVANIA82025
SusquehannaPENNSYLVANIA82025
SardisPENNSYLVANIA81974
RydePENNSYLVANIA82005
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA81994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.