BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 28 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Appalachian Mountains

All regionsAppalachian MountainsGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains has declined: down 44% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-44%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
320Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±10%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 2.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.3 (95% range 1.1–3.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±10%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.51.33.6
20262.41.33.6
20272.41.23.6
20282.31.23.5
20292.31.13.5

Routes In Appalachian Mountains

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Appalachian Mountains.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WarwickNEW-YORK191974
Mo Of SenecaWEST-VIRGINIA192024
DrydenNEW-YORK182024
CooperstownNEW-YORK171977
MeridaleNEW-YORK162024
StonecreekOHIO152024
Big FlatPENNSYLVANIA151981
SaltvilleVIRGINIA152024
WilliamsportMARYLAND122024
WallerPENNSYLVANIA122024
BeaverPENNSYLVANIA122023
BloomsburyNEW-JERSEY112024
OxfordNEW-YORK111976
S Berne 2NEW-YORK112024
PoyntellePENNSYLVANIA112024
High PointNEW-JERSEY102024
MilfordNEW-YORK102023
WestbrookvleNEW-YORK82018
OneontaNEW-YORK82024
SardisPENNSYLVANIA81974
MargaretPENNSYLVANIA82024
GeeseytownPENNSYLVANIA82024
RydePENNSYLVANIA82005
Peru MillsPENNSYLVANIA82024
Peters MtPENNSYLVANIA81994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.