BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 25 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

All regionsWest Gulf Coastal Plain / OuachitasGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas has collapsed: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-91%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas: down 91% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±188.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 0.14 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.35). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±188.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.000.35
20260.000.000.35
20270.000.000.35
20280.000.000.35
20290.000.000.35

Routes In West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CypressLOUISIANA41982
AthensTEXAS31968
RamseyARKANSAS21997
Locust BayouARKANSAS22023
Coal HillARKANSAS22023
FishvilleLOUISIANA22002
Fort PolkLOUISIANA21975
ClayLOUISIANA22012
LongstreetLOUISIANA22011
MarionLOUISIANA21994
Fort JessupLOUISIANA22022
Liberty HillTEXAS22010
Old MiloARKANSAS12024
StampsARKANSAS12004
HopeARKANSAS12024
AshdownARKANSAS11984
CrowsARKANSAS11987
PoyenARKANSAS11982
HollywoodARKANSAS12021
BlakelyARKANSAS11993
WaldronARKANSAS11984
StarkARKANSAS11986
MassardARKANSAS12022
SimsARKANSAS12011
LockesburgARKANSAS12018

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.