BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.3 (95% range 3.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-2%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 5.3 (95% range 3.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20265.53.97.1
20275.43.87.1
20285.43.87.0
20295.43.87.0
20305.33.77.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
EsdaileWISCONSIN232025
GrimmsWISCONSIN212021
HomerMICHIGAN192021
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN172025
OmroWISCONSIN162001
CohoctahMICHIGAN152025
BismarkOHIO151995
ParisWISCONSIN152025
Columbia CtyINDIANA142024
PackertownINDIANA142004
MottvilleMICHIGAN142025
OsseoMINNESOTA142021
N AndoverWISCONSIN142025
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN132019
Prairie Du ChienWISCONSIN132025
RemusMICHIGAN122025
HartlandMICHIGAN122011
Chippewa Lk.MICHIGAN122025
WhitewaterMINNESOTA122000
Fall RiverWISCONSIN122025
GreshamWISCONSIN122025
CoopersvilleMICHIGAN112025
GalesburgMICHIGAN112025
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN111987
HungerfordMICHIGAN112025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.