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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition has held roughly steady: down 2% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-2%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
161Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
5.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.7–7.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to rise about 11% by 2029 — from 4.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 5.4 (95% range 3.7–7.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20255.53.97.1
20265.53.87.1
20275.43.87.1
20285.43.87.0
20295.43.77.0

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CochraneWISCONSIN252023
GrimmsWISCONSIN212021
HomerMICHIGAN192021
TrempealeauWISCONSIN192024
LoraineWISCONSIN182021
WeyerhauserWISCONSIN172024
OmroWISCONSIN162001
Fall RiverWISCONSIN162024
WiotaWISCONSIN162024
BismarkOHIO151995
Hazel GreenWISCONSIN152024
Columbia CtyINDIANA142024
PackertownINDIANA142004
GalesburgMICHIGAN142024
HoltMICHIGAN142008
OsseoMINNESOTA142021
EsdaileWISCONSIN142024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN142024
ParisWISCONSIN142024
Barry S.G.A. 2MICHIGAN132019
GreshamWISCONSIN132024
MontereyMICHIGAN122023
HartlandMICHIGAN122011
WhitewaterMINNESOTA122000
RemusMICHIGAN112024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.