BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes has increased: up 29% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+29%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.70–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-28%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.70–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 28% by 2030 — from 3.7 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.7 (95% range 0.70–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.70.764.7
20272.70.754.7
20282.70.734.7
20292.70.714.7
20302.70.704.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TildenNEBRASKA322025
SpartaNEBRASKA192025
Eagle CreekNEBRASKA192025
MadisonNEBRASKA152025
MidwayNEBRASKA132025
LockhartMINNESOTA122025
PoncaNEBRASKA122025
HowardSOUTH-DAKOTA122025
WinsideNEBRASKA112003
LennoxSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
ZearingIOWA101995
FranklinMINNESOTA102025
WashingtonIOWA92025
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA92025
ClareIOWA72019
Redwood FallMINNESOTA72025
BeltramiMINNESOTA72025
PantherIOWA62025
HuntleyMINNESOTA62025
MaynardMINNESOTA62015
OkleeMINNESOTA62021
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA62011
FairmontMINNESOTA62025
EmeradoNORTH-DAKOTA62025
ChandlerMINNESOTA52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.