BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes has edged up: up 12% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+12%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
111Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 0.64–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+2%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.64–4.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 2.6 (95% range 0.64–4.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.70.714.6
20262.70.704.6
20272.60.684.6
20282.60.664.6
20292.60.644.6

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
TildenNEBRASKA222024
MidwayNEBRASKA182023
PoncaNEBRASKA152024
PantherIOWA112024
WinsideNEBRASKA112003
ZearingIOWA101995
TracyMINNESOTA92024
WashingtonIOWA82024
DenbighNORTH-DAKOTA82024
TrippSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
ClareIOWA72019
Turtle MtnsNORTH-DAKOTA72024
MaynardMINNESOTA62015
DawsonMINNESOTA62022
GlyndonMINNESOTA62024
OkleeMINNESOTA62021
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA62011
SpartaNEBRASKA62021
ScrantonIOWA52024
MccallsburgIOWA52024
CourtlandMINNESOTA52024
Winside 2NEBRASKA52022
KemptonNORTH-DAKOTA52017
CooperstownNORTH-DAKOTA52024
NashNORTH-DAKOTA52016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.