BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Oaks and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-75%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
36Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Oaks and Prairies: down 75% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-87%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.01Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 87% by 2029 — from 0.11 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.01 (95% range 0.00–0.25). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.040.000.28
20260.040.000.28
20270.030.000.27
20280.020.000.26
20290.010.000.25

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HoldenvilleOKLAHOMA32024
Wolfe CityTEXAS31973
KosseTEXAS22017
DecaturTEXAS21998
Mill CreekOKLAHOMA12015
LocoOKLAHOMA11985
ArdmoreOKLAHOMA11981
BeggsOKLAHOMA12022
ChoctawOKLAHOMA12022
NobleOKLAHOMA12019
BarnsdallOKLAHOMA11977
BartlesvilleOKLAHOMA12008
TatumsOKLAHOMA12024
HeyburnOKLAHOMA12018
DuncanOKLAHOMA12021
SkiatookOKLAHOMA12006
LockhartTEXAS11984
Lone OakTEXAS12002
Oak GroveTEXAS11972
OakwoodTEXAS11967
OsageTEXAS12016
DallasTEXAS11971
WeatherfordTEXAS11991
LydiaTEXAS11992
Miller GroveTEXAS12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.