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Species · BCR 14 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Atlantic Northern Forest

All regionsAtlantic Northern ForestGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Atlantic Northern Forest has collapsed: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-76%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
130Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has collapsed in Atlantic Northern Forest: down 76% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-72%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.20Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Atlantic Northern Forest is projected to fall about 72% by 2029 — from 0.71 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.20 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.470.001.7
20260.400.001.6
20270.330.001.5
20280.270.001.5
20290.200.001.4

Routes In Atlantic Northern Forest

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Atlantic Northern Forest.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New HartfordCONNECTICUT131987
CheshireMASSACHUSETTS111994
MontereyMASSACHUSETTS82024
WatervilleVERMONT71980
ManchesterMAINE61995
PittsfieldMASSACHUSETTS62016
BentonMAINE51980
TurnerMAINE42010
Forest StaMAINE41979
Otisfield GrMAINE32015
BrooksMAINE32017
HancockMAINE31995
Ft FairfieldMAINE32004
SheffieldMASSACHUSETTS32022
HancockMASSACHUSETTS32015
Mt ChocoruaNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
WalpoleNEW-HAMPSHIRE32024
S HoriconNEW-YORK32018
Underwood 2NEW-YORK32005
S WallingfrdVERMONT32022
W RutlandVERMONT32024
StoweVERMONT32022
HartfordMAINE22024
Bowdoin CtrMAINE22021
WarrenMAINE21990

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.