BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 6% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-6%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
273Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+67%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.6–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±56%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 67% by 2029 — from 2.6 in 2024 to a central estimate of 4.3 (95% range 2.6–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±56%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.32.65.9
20264.32.65.9
20274.32.65.9
20284.32.65.9
20294.32.65.9

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WashtaIOWA202014
College Spgs 2IOWA172023
IrvingtonNEBRASKA152024
Terre HauteILLINOIS132024
Mt HamillIOWA132024
College SpgsIOWA132004
Camp PointILLINOIS122023
MarshallILLINOIS122024
EllinorKANSAS112024
NorborneMISSOURI112023
Kings CreekOHIO112015
AliceIOWA101999
HamiltonMISSOURI101985
JulianNEBRASKA102024
ThurstonNEBRASKA102024
Lake SummersetILLINOIS92022
HudsonIOWA92022
HumboldtKANSAS92022
GrantvilleKANSAS92022
McfallMISSOURI92024
BelleviewILLINOIS82024
Le LoupKANSAS82021
Sni MillsMISSOURI81990
TarkioMISSOURI81989
Gretna 2NEBRASKA82024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.