BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has held roughly steady: down 10% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-10%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
276Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Baltimore Oriole In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+42%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
2.4–5.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to rise about 42% by 2030 — from 2.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 4.1 (95% range 2.4–5.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.22.55.9
20274.22.55.9
20284.22.55.9
20294.22.45.9
20304.12.45.9

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
New PointMISSOURI182025
River FallsWISCONSIN162025
Terre HauteILLINOIS152025
Mt HamillIOWA142025
College SpgsIOWA132004
SeveranceKANSAS132025
McfallMISSOURI132025
NorborneMISSOURI112023
RichlandNEBRASKA112025
Kings CreekOHIO112015
Red RockIOWA102025
AliceIOWA101999
HamiltonMISSOURI101985
ThurstonNEBRASKA102025
BradburyILLINOIS92025
ExlineIOWA92025
HumboldtKANSAS92022
GrantvilleKANSAS92022
Gretna 2NEBRASKA92025
MurdockNEBRASKA92025
ChandlervillILLINOIS82025
Le LoupKANSAS82021
OlsburgKANSAS82025
Sni MillsMISSOURI81990
TarkioMISSOURI81989

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.