BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+159%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 159% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.99–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.99–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 48% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.99–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.60.942.3
20261.60.962.3
20271.70.972.3
20281.70.982.4
20291.70.992.4

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirdsILLINOIS152024
Indian SpgsINDIANA92024
PimentoINDIANA82024
NewberryINDIANA62024
HudsonKENTUCKY62024
PlumKENTUCKY62024
YorkILLINOIS52024
BrazilINDIANA52024
SpencerINDIANA52024
CumbackINDIANA52014
BelknapILLINOIS42022
Peace ValleyMISSOURI42022
CraneMISSOURI42009
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA31998
LurtonARKANSAS31997
Cave In RockILLINOIS32007
Clear SpringINDIANA32024
GeorgiaINDIANA32024
McbrayerKENTUCKY32024
MerrimacKENTUCKY32024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY31983
JoyKENTUCKY32022
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY31978
GoshenKENTUCKY31999
GlencoeKENTUCKY32022

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.