BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods has surged: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

+147%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
139Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has surged in Central Hardwoods: up 147% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Central Hardwoods Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.96–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+49%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.7Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–2.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±55.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods is projected to rise about 49% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.7 (95% range 0.96–2.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±55.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.60.912.3
20271.60.932.3
20281.60.942.3
20291.60.952.3
20301.70.962.3

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BirdsILLINOIS152024
PlumKENTUCKY142025
YorkILLINOIS82025
BrazilINDIANA82025
HudsonKENTUCKY72025
RomeOHIO62025
SpencerINDIANA52024
CumbackINDIANA52014
PleasurevillKENTUCKY52025
Valhermoso SpgsALABAMA31998
LurtonARKANSAS31997
Cave In RockILLINOIS32007
PimentoINDIANA32025
Clear SpringINDIANA32024
ScottsburgINDIANA32025
MerrimacKENTUCKY32024
BoxvilleKENTUCKY31983
JoyKENTUCKY32022
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY31978
GoshenKENTUCKY31999
GlencoeKENTUCKY32022
Buena VistaKENTUCKY32017
PorterKENTUCKY32025
Sewell ShopKENTUCKY32023
IrontonMISSOURI31980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.