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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-58%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 58% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-51%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.61Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 51% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.61 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.810.001.9
20270.760.001.8
20280.710.001.8
20290.660.001.7
20300.610.001.7

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FredericMICHIGAN152001
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN141992
IronsMICHIGAN131989
GreenbushMINNESOTA122025
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA102023
GilmanWISCONSIN102025
MayfieldMICHIGAN72025
Rib LakeWISCONSIN62025
CunardMICHIGAN52021
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN51997
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN52019
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52024
WilsonMICHIGAN42010
Bear LakeMICHIGAN42025
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN41993
CathroMICHIGAN42016
HarriettaMICHIGAN42025
Cedar RunMICHIGAN41999
CouderayWISCONSIN42019
PhillipsWISCONSIN42024
AmbergWISCONSIN42018
BashawWISCONSIN42025
Ned LakeMICHIGAN32024
PickfordMICHIGAN32025
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.