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Species · BCR 12 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Boreal Hardwood Transition

All regionsBoreal Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-62%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
112Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Boreal Hardwood Transition: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In Boreal Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.63Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 47% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.63 (95% range 0.00–1.7). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.830.001.9
20260.780.001.8
20270.730.001.8
20280.680.001.7
20290.630.001.7

Routes In Boreal Hardwood Transition

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Boreal Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
FredericMICHIGAN152001
Traverse CtyMICHIGAN141992
IronsMICHIGAN131989
GilmanWISCONSIN122024
Wigwam BayMINNESOTA102023
Bear LakeMICHIGAN62024
GreenbushMINNESOTA62024
CunardMICHIGAN52021
Pleasant ValMICHIGAN51997
RiggsvilleMICHIGAN52019
HarriettaMICHIGAN52024
Walloon Lake 2MICHIGAN52024
MayfieldMICHIGAN52022
WilsonMICHIGAN42010
Walloon LakeMICHIGAN41993
CathroMICHIGAN42016
Cedar RunMICHIGAN41999
WarroadMINNESOTA42024
CouderayWISCONSIN42019
PhillipsWISCONSIN42024
Rib LakeWISCONSIN42024
AmbergWISCONSIN42018
Ned LakeMICHIGAN32024
BemidjiMINNESOTA31980
LudeMINNESOTA32021

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.