BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 29 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In Piedmont

All regionsPiedmontGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in Piedmont has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-56%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
83Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in Piedmont: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Piedmont is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-14%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.51Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±9.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in Piedmont is projected to fall about 14% by 2029 — from 0.59 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.51 (95% range 0.00–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±9.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.630.001.6
20260.600.001.5
20270.570.001.5
20280.540.001.5
20290.510.001.4

Routes In Piedmont

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in Piedmont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
CollegevillePENNSYLVANIA162023
West GrovePENNSYLVANIA121996
OlneyMARYLAND102024
Bald FriarMARYLAND71996
EmmitsburgMARYLAND62024
IjamsvilleMARYLAND62024
LabottPENNSYLVANIA51983
Silver SpgMARYLAND41989
EkloMARYLAND42018
Van BibberMARYLAND42013
MadonnaMARYLAND42022
EarltonMARYLAND42024
PottersvilleNEW-JERSEY42024
Mt GretnaPENNSYLVANIA42000
Doe RunPENNSYLVANIA42024
ShrewsburyPENNSYLVANIA42022
NorwoodMARYLAND32010
CrotonNEW-JERSEY32007
GatchelvillePENNSYLVANIA31988
Mount JoyPENNSYLVANIA32024
SchwenksvillPENNSYLVANIA32022
DavidVIRGINIA32013
Taylorstown 2VIRGINIA32024
Bachman MillMARYLAND22024
TheodoreMARYLAND22015

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.