BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Baltimore Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastForest birds

Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-54%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
150Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Baltimore Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-47%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 47% by 2030 — from 2.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.1 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.50.003.8
20271.40.003.7
20281.30.003.6
20291.20.003.5
20301.10.003.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
WillimanticCONNECTICUT202018
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT172025
Gay HeadMASSACHUSETTS152025
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS142025
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS121976
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS112021
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS112025
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS92007
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS91994
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND91991
E HartlandCONNECTICUT81992
WoodstockCONNECTICUT82007
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS82025
HuntingtonNEW-YORK82023
Mid HaddamCONNECTICUT72025
S BarreMASSACHUSETTS72025
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND72025
DanburyCONNECTICUT62017
WarrenCONNECTICUT62011
GranbyCONNECTICUT62025
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS62019
Wallum LakeRHODE-ISLAND62025
IndiantownMARYLAND51986
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.