BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 30 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Baltimore Oriole In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

All regionsNew England / Mid-Atlantic CoastGeneralists

Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast has fallen sharply: down 55% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-55%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
149Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Baltimore Oriole has fallen sharply in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±32.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast is projected to fall about 43% by 2029 — from 2.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.00–3.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±32.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.003.8
20261.50.003.7
20271.40.003.6
20281.30.003.5
20291.20.003.4

Routes In New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast

Routes recording Baltimore Oriole in New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wellfleet 2MASSACHUSETTS222024
WillimanticCONNECTICUT202018
PrincetonMASSACHUSETTS121976
Warren 2MASSACHUSETTS122024
E DennisMASSACHUSETTS112021
BrocktonMASSACHUSETTS112019
BelchertownMASSACHUSETTS112024
DoverNEW-HAMPSHIRE102024
Woodstock 2CONNECTICUT92024
WellfleetMASSACHUSETTS92007
E PepperellMASSACHUSETTS91994
East KingstonNEW-HAMPSHIRE92024
PulaskiRHODE-ISLAND91991
E HartlandCONNECTICUT81992
WoodstockCONNECTICUT82007
MarionMASSACHUSETTS82024
HuntingtonNEW-YORK82023
ShannockRHODE-ISLAND82024
DanburyCONNECTICUT62017
WarrenCONNECTICUT62011
PrattvilleMASSACHUSETTS62019
N OxfordMASSACHUSETTS62024
SouthingtonCONNECTICUT52024
IndiantownMARYLAND51986
Pedricktown 2NEW-JERSEY52024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.